Putin still regains power for the ＂five steps＂ of the Russian power core.
On December 24 last year, Putin (left), who was still Russian President, and then Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev were laughing and laughing at a banquet. (information photo)
Liu Fenghua-postdoctoral fellow of Peking University and associate researcher of Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia of China Academy of Social Sciences.
Zhang Hong-Assistant Research Fellow, Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
In March, Medvedev succeeded Putin as president; In August, war broke out between Russia and Georgia, and in November, Medvedev proposed amending the Constitution to extend the presidency.
Russia, which is trying to become the protagonist of the international stage again, on the one hand, its domestic politics is confusing, on the other hand, it is stronger in the fields of diplomacy and military affairs.
Who is the real core of power, Medvedev or Putin? Will Putin really return to the Kremlin as rumored? What will happen in Russia’s political, economic and diplomatic fields in 2009?
For this series of questions, three Russian experts from Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, China Academy of Social Sciences made an in-depth analysis and interpretation for us.
Domestic politics
Mapp group Putin "takes charge"
Putin became president again in 2009?
Guangzhou Daily: From Medvedev’s taking over as Russian president to the outbreak of armed conflict between Russia and Georgia, this year can be said to be an eventful year for Russia. How to evaluate the political situation in Russia this year?
Pang Dapeng: The core political feature of Russia in 2008 was the "Mapp combination", which is the core feature of Russian politics this year.
If we talk about the major events faced by the "Mapp Group" in 2008, according to Medvedev, there are three: first, the presidential election; The second is the conflict between Russia and Georgia; The third is the financial crisis. I think these three events are exactly the three major events in Russia’s political, economic and diplomatic fields in 2008.
Guangzhou Daily: Last month, Medvedev announced a constitutional amendment to extend the presidency. Some people say that this is to create conditions for Putin to serve as president again in 2009?
Pang Dapeng: On November 5, Medvedev delivered his State of the Union address for the first time after taking office, in which he made three suggestions on administrative reform, the most important of which was to extend the presidency from four years to six years.
However, there is a problem. Some people think that the amendment of this article is to pave the way for Putin to return to the presidency, and propose two possibilities: one is that Medvedev resigned in 2009 and Putin took over; The second possibility is that Putin will return to the Kremlin within a year or two. I think the situation in Russia is difficult to predict. There is a saying: If you want to lose your reputation, please predict the situation in Russia.
Guangzhou Daily: In the "Mapp Group", what do you think of their status or power?
Pang Dapeng: In my opinion, the core of the power of the "Mapp combination" is undoubtedly Putin.
This can be seen from four aspects: First, shortly after Medvedev was elected president, Putin actually controlled the leaders of powerful departments in his hands by setting up a government presidium, which led to the meeting between the president and the heads of powerful departments once a week, and now it has become a meeting between the prime minister and the heads of powerful departments once a week.
2. Putin has mastered the appointment and dismissal of the Russian elite by serving as the chairman of the United Russia Party. It can be seen that because the United Russia Party occupies a dominant position in the main body of the Federation, Putin actually holds the appointment and removal of the federal chief executive.
3. Putin’s ideas have been solidified after the new president took office. Putin’s policies have become Russian medium-and long-term political ideas through Putin’s plan and party constitution’s party program, which is an invisible binding force. We can see that Medvedev’s policy agenda after taking office is to copy Putin’s plan word for word.
4. As far as the elite team is concerned, shortly after Medvedev came to power, some people in the west suggested who was Medvedev’s confidant, mainly the Minister of Justice konovalov and others, but through the government operation in the past six months, these people did not play a leading role.
Therefore, from the above four aspects-concept, team, government operation mechanism and party mechanism, the core of Russia’s power is still in Putin’s hands.